Wood from planted forest: a global outlook 2005-2030.
Abstract
Planted forests constituted only 7 percent of the global forest
area, or about 271 million hectares, in the year 2005, but they
contributed a higher proportion of overall forest
goods and services
. In
recent years, the broader significance and importance of planted forests
have been recognized internationally, and standards for their
responsible management have been established,
relating to
relate prep →
relate prep → ,
social and
environmental as well as economic benefits. As one of the important
provisions from planted forests, this study examined their future
potential production of wood. From a baseline survey of 61 countries,
666 management schemes were established for planted forests, taking into
account tree species, rotation lengths, production potential and end
uses of wood. With an assumed average efficiency rate of 70 percent, the
potential industrial wood production in 2005 from planted forests was
estimated at 1.2 billion [m.sup.3] or about two-thirds of the overall
wood production in that year. Scenarios until 2030 (detailed) and 2105
(simplified) were developed, indicating that wood production from
planted forests may increase considerably. Results are provided with
breakdowns by region, species groups and end-use categories. It is
concluded that the significance of planted forests, and recognition of
their contributions to a range of development goals, are likely to
increase in coming decades.
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
Role of planted forests
The United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization (
FAO
n See Food and Agriculture Organization.
)
World Symposium on Man-Made Forests and Their Industrial Importance,
Canberra, Australia, 1967 established a global recognition of the
potential importance of planted forests. Although primarily driven by
the need for a sustainable supply of industrial
roundwood
, meaning The Causeway) is a village in County Wicklow, Ireland. It was listed as having a population of 518 in the census of 2002.
, the social
and environmental dimensions of planted forests were also emphasized
(FAO 1967). Planted forests have an important role in providing economic
and social benefits in eradicating poverty in developing countries and
in industrialized countries where marginalized groups and indigenous
peoples have previously been excluded from the benefits of development
processes (
IIED
IIED Intentional Infliction of Emotional Distress
2004).
The International Experts Meeting on the Role of Planted Forests in
Sustainable Forest Management
in Chile, 1999 (Anon. 1999) and subsequent
UNFF
Intersessional Experts Meeting on the Role of Planted Forests in
Sustainable Forest Management in
New Zealand
, island country (2005 est. pop. 4,035,000), 104,454 sq mi (270,534 sq km), in the S Pacific Ocean, over 1,000 mi (1,600 km) SE of Australia. The capital is Wellington; the largest city and leading port is Auckland.
2003 (Anon. 2003) noted the
beginning of a new era for planted forests. It was recognized that
planted forests needed to fulfill diverse roles depending upon local
contexts and drivers, and that
adaptive management
An approach to management of natural resources that emphasizes how little is known about the dynamics of ecosystems and that as more is learned management will evolve and improve.
systems were
necessary to respond to changing social, cultural, environmental and
economic expectations. It was also recognized that although the role of
the market and
globalization
provided opportunities for investors in
planted forests, responsible investors were required to take into
account all dimensions as non-market values. To facilitate this, sound
governance, institutional, policy, legal and regulatory frameworks
supported by knowledge exchange and technology transfer to build
capacity and capability were needed. These developments led to a
multi-stakeholder process to define principles of responsible management
of planted forests, as a basis for the dialogue at the international
level and guide for strategic decision-making on planted forests (FAO
2006).
Scope, concepts and definitions
Planted forests is a broader concept than forest plantations. In
the past, FAO has defined forest plantations as those forest stands
established by planting and/or seeding in the process of afforestation
or
reforestation
The reestablishment of forest cover either naturally or artificially. Given enough time, natural regeneration will usually occur in areas where temperatures and rainfall are adequate and when grazing and wildfires are not too frequent.
. Historically, the emphasis has been on intensively
managed forest plantations of single species (native or introduced)
stands, with uniform planting densities, even age classes and shorter
rotation, as often found in tropical and
subtropical
adj.
Of, relating to, or being the geographic areas adjacent to the Tropics.
Adjective
of the region lying between the tropics and temperate lands
regions. However,
it was not always possible to distinguish between forest plantations and
forest plantings of native species grown in long-rotation,
mixed-species, mixed-age classes, particularly in temperate and
boreal
adj.1. Of or relating to the north; northern.
2. Of or concerning the north wind.
3. Boreal
regions–previously classified as “semi-natural” forests.
Recent international dialogue suggests that a more inclusive concept be
used to better reflect overall investments and returns of planted
forests, as well as related social and environmental concerns (e.g.,
Anon. 2003).
Prior Global Forest Resources Assessments undertaken by FAO
reported forest plantation data that strongly reflected monocultures of
primarily introduced species that did not adequately account for the
significant resources and provision of goods and services that were
provided by the planted semi-natural forests of mainly Europe and
North
America
third largest continent (1990 est. pop. 365,000,000), c.9,400,000 sq mi (24,346,000 sq km), the northern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere.
.
In recent years, a FAO coordinated expert consultation on
harmonizing forest-related definitions, defined forest plantations as
those forests of introduced species established through planting or
seeding. It was also recognized that forest plantations were a sub-set
of planted forests that included planted semi-natural forests (FAO
2002).
Planted forests are now defined as those forests predominantly
composed of trees established through planting and/or deliberate seeding
of native or introduced species (FAO 2006, FAO 2007). This definition
specifically recognized the planted component of semi-natural forests
comprised primarily of native species, and forest plantations of
primarily introduced species. The scope of planted forests in the
continuum of forest characteristics is outlined in Figure 1.
The broadening of the definition to include the planted
semi-natural forests not previously reported doubles the area that will
have a substantial impact on the yields of forest products and social
and environmental services.
According to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of:
2. In keeping with:
3.
FAO (2005), there were 140
million hectares of forest plantations globally, of which 78 percent
were for productive purposes. According to the Global Planted Forest
Thematic Study (Del Lungo et al. 2006), the global planted forest area
was estimated at 271 million hectares, of which 76 percent was for
productive purpose. Based on these results, this paper explores
alternative global outlooks for the provision of wood from planted
forests from 2005 to 2030.
Recent outlook studies
The global outlook for plantations (ABARE I999) and the global
outlook for future wood supply from forest plantations (FAO 2000)
provide the most comprehensive and recent studies on forest plantation
outlook. Both studies were based upon FAO’s Forest Resources
Assessment 1990 dataset, updated to 1995 in 1997. Both studies used
prevailing forest plantation definitions as detailed by FAO (1998).
The ABARE (1999) study estimated that although the productive
forest plantation area was 116 million hectares or about 3 percent of
the global forest area in 2000, forest plantations were estimated to
produce 35 percent of the global wood supply in 2000, 44 percent in
2020, and 46 percent in 2040.
The FAO (1998) outlook study detailed three scenarios of future
forest plantation expansion and three different extrapolations for
future industrial roundwood consumption to 2050. In 1995 it was
estimated that 124 million hectares of forest plantations (3.5 percent
of forest area) yielded more than 22 percent of industrial roundwood
production and by 2010, between 31 and 34 percent, by 2020 up to 46
percent, and by 2050 up to 64 percent–depending upon the forest
plantation production scenario and
extrapolation
of industrial roundwood
consumption. These and other outlook studies (Solberg et al. 1996, Sedjo
and Lyon 1996, IIED 1996,
WRI
WRI World Resources Institute
WRI War Resisters’ International
WRI Western Research Institute
WRI Water Research Institute
1998,
ITTO
1999, Turner et al. 2006)
assist policy- and decision-makers, investors, and managers to better
understand the key role that planted resources play in provision of
wood, nonwood, and social and environmental services.
Policy context
The
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED) or an 11-day meeting held in June, 1992, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to discuss the global conflict between economic development and environmental protection.
(
UNCED
), Earth Summit in Rio, 1992 (UNCED 1992) recognized the
significance of planted forests in sustainable forest management as
reflected in the
Forest Principles
(UN 1992) and Chapter 11 of Agenda 21
(UN 1993). United Nations legally binding instruments, including the
Convention to Combat
Desertification
(
UNCCD
2008), Framework Convention
on Climate Change (
UNFCCC
2008), and the
Convention on Biological
Diversity
(
CBD
2008) strongly support afforestation and reforestation in
rehabilitation of degraded forests and fragile ecosystems to restore the
contribution of
forests and trees
in mitigating the effects of climate
change, reversing loss of natural forests and restoring landscapes and
increasingly a competitive source of bioenergy. From 1995, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Forests and Intergovernmental Forum on
Forests (UNFF 2008a, 2008b), subsequently supported by the
United
Nations Forum on Forests
(UNFF 2008c), formulated a comprehensive set of
proposals for action to achieve sustainable forest management, several
of which related to enhancing the social, cultural, environmental and
economic benefits of planted forests.
Planted forests are recognized as a valuable land use to realize
the values and principles of the
Millennium Development Goals
(UN 2000),
particularly to: eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (Goal 1); ensure
environmental sustainability (Goal 7); and develop global partnerships
for development (Goal 8). Despite being less than 2 percent of global
land use, planted forests play an important role in the provision of a
wide range Of goods (roundwood [industrial and subsistence] and fiber,
bioenergy, and non-wood forest products) and social and environmental
services (conservation, protection of soil and water, rehabilitation of
degraded lands, combating desertification, carbon sinks, recreation,
diversification of urban and rural landscapes and employment).
Responsible management of planted forests can reduce the pressure on the
range of goods and services provided by native forests and enhance the
livelihoods of local communities, including indigenous peoples. Recent
standards (FAO 2006, ITTO 1993;
CIFOR
2001, 2003; IUCN/ITTO 2006) and
certification schemes have highlighted the need for policy makers,
planners and forest managers to strive to balance the social, cultural,
environmental and economic dimensions of planted forest investments
In recent years a diverse modern forest industries sector has been
encouraged to adapt to the use of the “new wood” from planted
forests. The range of industrial products from planted forests include:
lumber, plywood and veneer, reconstituted panels (
MDF
,
OSB
abbr.
Order of Saint Benedict
,
chipboard
n.
A pasteboard made from discarded paper.
Noun
thin rigid board made of compressed wood particles
Noun 1.
,
etc.), modular components (laminated products, moulding, framing,
floorings, etc.), pulp and paper, and increasingly bioenergy. Scientific
research and development, particularly in genetic improvement and forest
industries processing have revolutionized the productivities and the end
use options for planted forests. Application of biotechnology has
substantially improved site-species matching, growth, yields and
financial benefits for planted forest investors, particularly in
fast-growing, short-rotation crops. The development of forest industries
technology has resulted in increasing end use options for raw materials
from planted forests, improved efficiencies and reduced wood industries
costs (Sutton 2003,
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005).
Industrial roundwood from planted forests is being recognized as a
renewable resource
and an energy efficient and
environmentally friendly
raw material for construction when compared to alternative products such
as steel, aluminum, concrete and plastic (Sutton 2003). Planted forests
can make significant positive contributions to rural economies through
primary and secondary industry development, employment and development
of rural infrastructure. Trees are increasingly being planted to support
agricultural production systems, community livelihoods, poverty
alleviation, and food security (FAO 2006).
Outlook objectives
This study attempts to estimate the wood supply from planted
forests globally to provide policy and decision-makers data and
information on anticipated outlook options. While recognizing the
important social and environmental services from planted forests, the
outlook for these dimensions is beyond the scope of this study.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Material and methods
Country survey
The baseline data for the present outlook were obtained from a
survey of the status of planted forests in 61 countries, representing
about 95 percent of the estimated global planted forest area of 271
million hectares in 2005. The survey requested in-depth information
about planted forests in each country, including species distribution,
ownership, end use, rotation lengths, mean annual increment (
MAI
MAI Multilateral Agreement on Investment
MAI Maius
MAI Ministerul Administratiei si Internelor
) and
age class distribution. Of the 61 countries, 36 responded to a formal
information request, and 25 were subject to a desk study (Del Lungo et
al. 2006). The present outlook is limited to these 61 countries and thus
provides slightly conservative results for global planted forests. A
summary of the initial state is presented in Table 1. The countries and
their proportion of planted forests over all forests are detailed in
Figure 2.
Scenarios
Three scenarios were defined for the outlook, taking into
consideration potential changes in the planted forest area (mainly
through new plantings) as well as opportunities for increased
productivity resulting from more efficient management practices, new
technology and genetic improvements (Table 2).
Management schemes
The unit of analysis in the outlook is a “management
scheme”, defined by country, species/species group, purpose
(protective or productive) and characteristic (plantation or
semi-natural forest) of the planted forest subset (Del Lungo et al.
2006). Parameters applied in the outlook model for each management
scheme are listed in Table 3, together with one example management
scheme: Picea sitchensis in Ireland. In total, 666 management schemes
were identified for the 61 countries and applied in the modeling. Input
data missing from the country survey and data for area efficiency and
productivity changes were filled through expert estimates. All
management scheme input data are given in Carle et al. (2008). A summary
of the management scheme inputs is shown in Table 4 and Figure 3.
Model
A
deterministic model
was developed using Excel (Microsoft Inc.
2007) for the outlook to predict future production of wood in each
management scheme, for each of the five wood end use categories,
following the process in Figure 4. The model was run for all 666
management schemes for each of the three scenarios for the period
2005-2030. Table 5 shows model results for one example management
scheme: Picea sitchensis on Ireland, using the input data from Table 3.
To derive longer term projections at a more general level, the rotation
length distribution in Table 4 was used to create a simplified set of 11
management schemes, for which the model was run for each of the three
scenarios for the period 2005 to 2105.
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
Geographic presentation of findings
While the analysis was based on 61 countries, it is assumed that
the results provide a global perspective of future wood production from
planted forests, as they represent ca. 95 percent of the global area in
2005. Seven regions were identified for presenting the results as shown
in Table 6.
Results
Area trends
Model results indicate that the area of planted forests will
increase in all scenarios (Table 7). From an initial area of 261 million
hectares, the area increase in Scenario 1 will be 16 percent to 303
million hectares, and in Scenarios 2 and 3 an increase of 32 percent to
345 million hectares in year 2030. Among regions, the highest absolute
increase will be in Asia and the highest relative increase in Southern
Europe. Among species groups, the highest absolute increase will be in
pine forests.
Wood volume trends
The model provides estimates for wood production by species groups
and regions for the period 2005-2030 as illustrated in Figure 5 and
Table 8. The total volume produced increases from 1.4 billion [m.sup.3]
in 2005 to 1.6, 1.7 and 2.1 billion [m.sup.3], respectively, in the
three scenarios. Most of the variation between scenarios are in Asia and
South America
fourth largest continent (1991 est. pop. 299,150,000), c.6,880,000 sq mi (17,819,000 sq km), the southern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere.
where the higher productivity scenario gives a
considerable increase in wood production. The differences between
Scenarios 1 and 2 are very small, primarily as additional planted area
in Scenario 2 may not generate wood within the studied period.
Figure 5 also illustrates that South America and Asia have a more
dynamic future, compared with other regions, for Scenario 3, and that
the volume increases in this scenario will mainly be in Eucalyptus and
other hardwood species.
Table 8 illustrates that the proportion of wood for industrial use
(comprised of the sum of the end use categories pulp/fiber and wood
products) is about 85 percent of all wood from planted forests. The
total volume of wood for industrial use increases from 1.2 billion
[m.sup.3] [yr.sup.-1] in 2005 to 1.9 billion [m.sup.3] [yr.sup.-1] in
2030 according to Scenario 3.
Long-term projection
In Figure 6, the continued linear increases of wood volumes in
Scenarios 1 and 2 are confirmed. Scenario 1 leads to a volume production
of about 2.5 billion [m.sup.3] [yr.sup.-1] 100 years from now, and
Scenario 2 results in a production of about 3.5 billion [m.sup.3]
[yr.sup.-1]. For Scenario 3, however, the assumed continued increased
productivity gives a much more rapid development of wood production to
about 9 billion [m.sup.3] [yr.sup.-1] in year 2105.
Discussion
Methodology and data issues
The outlook model applied considers the development of wood
production under current forest management regimes. It does not analyze
consequences of eventual shifts in, e.g., wood markets, land-use
competition, trade regulations or political decisions that may affect
the development of planted forests. Further, the model does not apply
any economic considerations to maximize the returns on investments, but
assumes that the biological production potential combined with the
estimated efficiency ration is a good measure of future wood output. The
defined scenarios do, however, assume that there will be drivers that
support an expanding investment in planted forests and improved
productivity (in Scenario 3). The results should be interpreted in
relation to these limitations and assumptions and could be used as input
to further economic analyses.
Input data from the country survey were not complete for many of
the management schemes, meaning that the analysts had to make estimates
at the level of individual management schemes to fill these gaps.
Further, data on productivity change and area efficiency were not
included in the survey, but estimated by the analysts. These estimates
were made in consultation with literature and expertise on the
species/country in question. Carle et al. (2008) provides details on
input data and estimates made.
Comparison with earlier studies
The results on planted forest areas and volumes correspond well to
previous studies, considering that the scope was widened to include
semi-natural planted forests. This study, consequently, provides a more
complete picture of the extent and production of planted forests,
particularly in the temperate region.
The present study has described the planted forest resources and
their management in greater detail than previous studies, through 666
management schemes in 61 countries representing about 95 percent of the
global planted forest area. The results are, therefore, possible to
break down into regions, rotation lengths, species and age class
distribution and projected end uses of the produced wood. This provides
important perspectives as to the types and geographic distribution of
planted forests that were previously not well documented.
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
Previous outlooks and assessments have, like this one, made
assumptions as to the overall management efficiency of reported planted
forests. On average, this study assumes a 70 percent management
efficiency, which is in parity with previous studies. Previous outlooks
have not, however, emphasized increases in productivity over time,
following both increased forest management efficiency as well as genetic
and other improvements. As productivity has increased considerably in
past decades, it is reasonable to conclude that Scenario 3, applying
continued positive productivity trend is the most probable scenario
until 2030. It can, however, be argued whether it is realistic that this
development continues until year 2105 as also modelled in this study.
Significance of planted forests
The rates of new planting and expansion of the global planted
forest resource have continued in most regions of the world as the
increasing role of planted forests as an investment and legitimate land
use have been recognized. Land use conflicts with competing land uses
are emerging as a threat that needs to be addressed by
participatory
planning
with key
stakeholder
n. a person having in his/her possession (holding) money or property in which he/she has no interest, right or title, awaiting the outcome of a dispute between two or more claimants to the money or property.
groups. However, planted forests account
for less than 2 percent of land-cover globally.
The proportion of wood for industrial use from planted forests
depends upon the accuracy of scenarios for planted forests as well as
industrial roundwood consumption and production. In 2005 the global
industrial roundwood produced was 1.8 billion [m.sup.3] (FAO 2005) with
some variations between estimates (Fig. 7). The wood for industrial use
available from planted forests in 2005, calculated as the sum of
pulp/fiber and wood products in Table 8, was 1.2 billion [m.sup.3], or
potentially 66 percent of global industrial roundwood production.
Comparing Scenario 3 in this study with outlooks of industrial wood use
(e.g., Sedjo and Lyons 1996, Turner et al. 2006), this proportion could
rise to 69 to 80 percent.
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 7 OMITTED]
According to this study, about 10 percent of wood yielded from
planted forests is used for bioenergy. Only a small proportion of liquid
biofuels are currently forest-based, but it is anticipated that within a
decade the development of an economically viable process for producing
lingo-cellulosic liquid biofuels will lead to the widespread use of
forest biomass in the transport sector. Residues from the forest
products industry and wood from planted forests provide the main sources
of supply of commercial lingo-cellulosic
biofuel
n.
Fuel such as methane produced from renewable resources, especially plant biomass and treated municipal and industrial wastes.
bi
production.
Although the role of the market and globalization provide
opportunities for investors in planted forests for the marketing and
trade of wood and nonwood forest products, responsible investors
recognize the need to take into account all dimensions, including the
non-market values. Planted forests have an increasingly important role
in providing social, cultural and environmental benefits as well as the
economic values. These include the recognition and the maintenance of
social and cultural services, including the welfare and empowerment of
adjacent communities, workers and other stakeholders and adopting
planning, management, utilization and monitoring mechanisms to avoid
adverse impacts. Planted forests also impact the provision of
ecosystem
services
, so planning, management, and utilization and monitoring
mechanisms should be adopted to maintain and enhance the conservation of
environmental services by adopting watershed management, soil erosion
protection and landscape approaches to maintain water, soil, forest
health, nutrient and carbon balances and restore degraded landscapes.
Furthermore, an indirect benefit of planted forests, if planned and
managed responsibly, is to take some pressure for wood for industrial
purposes away from native forests to allow them to be managed for
conservation, protection and recreation purposes. Planted forests can
make positive contributions towards meeting the objectives of the
Millennium Development Goals, CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC, UNFF and other legal
and non-legally binding instruments.
The UN Convention on Climate Change and the
Kyoto Protocol
see global warming.
(UNFCCC
2008) provides for mechanisms to offset
greenhouse gas
n.
Any of the atmospheric gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect.
emissions,
including afforestation, reforestation and reduction in
deforestation
and forest degradation, to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Thus,
planted forests, with their relatively high rates of growth and
productivity, provide a high rate of annual carbon
sequestration
and
provide a valuable carbon sink. In addition, the increasing wood
products flows from planted forests provide long-term carbon storage.
For the 271 million hectares of planted forests globally, and using
average
growth rates
from this study and carbon expansion factors (
IPCC
2004), planted forests sequester about 1.5 giga tonnes of carbon per
year, which is in parity with calculated losses from deforestation.
Additionally, an estimated 0.5 giga tonnes of carbon is stored long-term
in forest products from planted forests every year. Thus planted forests
can play a critical role in sequestering carbon and providing carbon
sinks.
Key drivers
Responsible management of planted forests can result in positive
contributions being made towards meeting the objectives of the
Millennium Development Goals, CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC, UNFF/IPF/IFF and other
legal and non-legally binding instruments. Major drivers that will
influence planted forests development in the future include:
*
Good governance
and supportive policy, legal, regulatory, and
institutional frameworks for long-term investments in planted forest
developments.
* The impact of globalization on the nature of investment
portfolios available for planted forest developments and access to
global forest products markets.
* Availability of land suitable for planted forest developments
that does not compete with existing land uses, including food and energy
production through agricultural crops, livestock or naturally
regenerating forests; native forests should not be cleared to establish
planted forests, but they should benefit from the reduced harvesting
pressure on them for forest products.
* Recognition that planted forests are a land use that provides,
among other benefits, wood products that are renewable, energy efficient
and environmentally friendly unlike competing construction industry
products such as cement, steel, aluminium and plastic products.
* Recognition that climate change adaptation, but particularly
mitigation can benefit from planted forest developments to sequester
carbon and provide carbon sinks both in planted forest stands and in the
forest products harvested and utilized.
* Advances in technology particularly in:
** Commercially viable processes to convert
lignocellulosic biomass
to liquid biofuels from planted forests.
** Biotechnology to produce high-quality reproductive materials
that have high yields, are resistant to insects and diseases, and offer
improved end-use qualities.
**
Silviculture
see forestry.
, forest health, fire management, and
invasive
species
** Harvesting and wood industries to utilize planted forests
species, piece sizes and wood properties for a range of solid, panel and
reconstituted products.
It is difficult to predict how the future for planted forests will
unfold towards 2030 as the resources are subject to several major
existing and emerging drivers. Planted forests can also be used in a
flexible array of wood, non-wood and social and environmental services
that are increasingly in demand. We would like to conclude, however,
that the significance of planted forests for wood and other social,
economic or environmental benefits are likely to continue to increase.
However, if the full potential productivity and benefits of planted
forests are to be achieved, responsible policies, plans and practices
need to be adopted and applied to balance sustainable livelihoods and
land use needs.
This paper was received for publication in March 2008 and has
undergone the Journal’s standard peer review process. Article No.
10469.
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2. Music To provide harmony for (a melody).
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Transfer of government services or assets to the private sector. State-owned assets may be sold to private owners, or statutory restrictions on competition between privately and publicly owned
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Pulpwood
n.
Soft wood, such as spruce, aspen, or pine, used in making paper.
Noun
pine, spruce, or any other soft wood used to make paper
Noun 1.
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2. also ci·on A detached shoot or twig containing buds from a woody plant, used in grafting.
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Corresponding author Jim Carle is Chief, Forest Resources
Development Service, Forestry Department,
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations
, Rome (jim.carle@fao.org). Peter
Holmgren is Director, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy
Division, Natural Resources Department, FAO, Rome
(peter.holmgren@fao.org).
Table 1.--Summary of planted forest area in the 61
studied countries by region and major species
group in 2005.
Softwoods
Region Pinus spp. Other
Mha Mha
Africa 1.2 0.5
Asia 18.9 15.3
North, Central & 26.4 36.0
Eastern Europe
Southern Europe 0.0 4.6
North & Central America 18.9 7.2
South America 5.1 0.3
Oceania 2.7 0.2
Total 73 64
Hardwoods
Region Acacia Eucalyptus
spp. spp.
Mha Mha
Africa 5.2 1.2
Asia 3.8 7.6
North, Central & -- --
Eastern Europe
Southern Europe -- 0.0
North & Central America -- --
South America 0.2 4.5
Oceania 0.0 0.5
Total 9 14
Hardwoods Total
Region Other
Mha Mha
Africa 1.4 9
Asia 79.2 125
North, Central & 12.1 74
Eastern Europe
Southern Europe 4.7 9
North & Central America 1.7 28
South America 0.9 11
Oceania 0.2 4
Total 100 261
Note: Mha = millions of hectares
Table 2.--Description of the three scenarios applied
in the outlook model.
Scenario 1--Pessimistic scenario
Area changes are assumed to be half of the predicted
ones for Scenario 2, and there are no productivity
increases. This represents a scenario where the current
increase of planted forest area will slow down.
Scenario 2--Business as usual
Area changes have been predicted based on past
trends and are assumed to continue at the same rate
until 2030. However, there are no productivity increases
in this scenario.
Scenario 3--Higher productivity
Area changes have been predicted as in Scenario 2. In
addition, an annual productivity increase has been
applied for those management schemes where genetic,
management or technological improvements are expected.
As an example, a productivity increase of 2 percent
annually equals an accumulated productivity increase of
64 percent for the 25 year period (2005-2030).
Table 3.--Model input parameters for each management scheme.
Parameter Unit Comment
Area ha Total extent of the management
scheme.
Age class % Distribution of the area across 12
distribution age classes. The sum of the 12
proportions to be 100.
Rotation length years Average rotation length across the
management scheme
Mean annual [m.sup.3] Average growth in stem volume on
increment (MAI) [ha.sup.-1] bark as average over rotation cycle
[yr.sup.-1] and across the management scheme.
Area efficiency % An estimate of the relative
performance (max 100%) of the
management scheme, taking into
account (a) reductions of overall
area related to infrastructure or
unsuccessful stand establishments,
(b) reduced productivity due to
stand health issues or suboptimal
management practices, (c) influence
of other management objectives,
particularly related to protective
functions, on the wood volume
production.
Volume end use for: % Distribution of expected end use
--Fuel / Bioenergy of stem wood into five categories
--Pulp / Fiber as listed in the left column. The
--Wood products sum of the five proportions should
--Unspecified be 100.
--Harvest losses
Annual area change % The annual increase in area (net
new establishments). The increase
is applied in relation to the
initial area throughout the studied
time period, i.e., as a linear
development. This parameter varies
between the applied scenarios.
Annual % The annual increase in overall
productivity productivity, representing improved
change area efficiency (see above), better
management practises, higher
technology efficiency and genetic
improvements. The increase is
applied to the previous year
throughout the studied time period,
i.e., as an exponential
development. This parameter was
applied only in Scenario 3.
Parameter Example: Ireland, Picea
sitchensis'
--forest plantation
--productive purpose
Area 301,080 ha
Age class 1-5: 10% 31-40: 20%
distribution 6-10. 10% 41-50: 9%
11-20: 23% 51-60: 2%
21-30: 24%
Rotation length 50 years
Mean annual 18 [m.sup.3] [ha.sup.-1]
increment (MAI) [yr.sup.-1]
Area efficiency 90%
Volume end use for: Fuel / Bioenergy: 5%
--Fuel / Bioenergy Pulp / Fiber: 30%
--Pulp / Fiber Wood products: 60%
--Wood products Unspecified: 0%
--Unspecified Harvest losses: 5%
--Harvest losses
Annual area change Scenario 1: 1.5%
Scenarios 2 and 3: 3%
Annual Scenarios 1 and 2: 0%
productivity Scenario 3: 1%
change
Table 4.--Summary of planted forest area and model input parameters
for different rotation lengths at 2005 for the 666 agement
schemes identified.
Rotation Area MAI Production
length potential
area * MAI
[m.sup.3]
[ha.sup.-1] [Mm.sup.3]
years Mha [yr.sup.-1] [yr.sup.1]
-10 13 23 288
11-20 25 10 240
21-30 64 10 615
31-40 38 7 251
41-50 16 8 129
51-60 23 8 137
61-70 39 7 278
71-80 15 7 100
81-90 11 5 53
91-100 2 6 15
101+ 14 7 91
Total 261 9 2246
Rotation Management Average Average area
length schemes area expansion
included efficiency (Scenarios
2 and 3)
years n % % [yr.sup.1]
-10 43 76 1.46
11-20 60 63 2.85
21-30 90 72 0.84
31-40 71 58 2.40
41-50 48 67 1.11
51-60 60 69 1.44
61-70 60 77 0.54
71-80 44 70 0.52
81-90 36 93 1.81
91-100 31 68 0.74
101+ 123 62 0.00
Total 666 70 1.29
Rotation Average Proportion
length productivity young
increase stands (1)
(Scenario 3)
years % [yr.sup.1] %
-10 1.89 53
11-20 1.41 43
21-30 0.52 55
31-40 0.34 58
41-50 0.55 44
51-60 0.74 63
61-70 0.13 57
71-80 0.28 80
81-90 0.80 81
91-100 0.12 78
101+ 0.01 57
Total 0.58 58
Rotation Proportion Proportion
length aged over-aged
stands (1) stands (1)
years % %
-10 30 17
11-20 30 27
21-30 36 8
31-40 25 17
41-50 39 17
51-60 31 6
61-70 39 4
71-80 20 0
81-90 17 2
91-100 20 2
101+ 40 3
Total 31 11
(1) Young stands defined as aged <0.5 * rotation length; aged stands
defined as aged 0.5-1 * rotation length; over-aged stands defined
as aged > rotation length.
Table 5.--Example of model results for one of the 666 analyzed
management schemes: Ireland, Picea sitchensis (see also model
inputs in Table 3). Note similarities in wood outputs between
Scenarios 1 and 2 as new plantings, in this case, will not
generate wood before 2030.
2005
Category Unit Scenario 1
Area 000 ha 301
Fuel / Bioenergy 000 [m.sup.3] 110
Pulp / Fiber 000 [m.sup.3] 658
Wood products 000 [m.sup.3] 1317
Harvest losses 000 [m.sup.3] 110
Total volume 000 [m.sup.3] 2195
2005
Category Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Area 301 301
Fuel / Bioenergy 110 110
Pulp / Fiber 658 658
Wood products 1317 1317
Harvest losses 110 110
Total volume 2195 2195
2020
Category Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Area 369 437 437
Fuel / Bioenergy 244 244 283
Pulp / Fiber 1463 1463 1699
Wood products 2926 2926 3398
Harvest losses 244 244 244
Total volume 4877 4877 5623
2030
Category Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Area 414 527 527
Fuel / Bioenergy 293 293 375
Pulp / Fiber 1756 1756 2252
Wood products 3512 3512 4504
Harvest losses 293 293 293
Total volume 5853 5853 7423
Table 6.--Regions in this study and number
of survey countries in each.
Region n survey countries
Africa 7
Asia 11
North, Central & Eastern Europe 24
Southern Europe 11
North & Central America 2
South America 1
Oceania 2
World 61
Table 7.--Area of planted forests by region and major species
groups at 2005 and 2030 for the three scenarios.
Region Acacia Eucalyptus Pinus
2005
Africa 5.2 1.2 1.2
Asia 3.8 7.6 18.9
NCE Europe 26.4
S Europe
NC America 18.9
South America 0.2 4.5 5.1
Oceania 0.5 2.7
Total 9.1 13.8 73.2
2030, Scenario 1
Africa 4.7 1.2 1.4
Asia 4.6 10.6 23.3
NCE Europe 28.8
S Europe
NC America 21.9
South America 0.2 5.2 6.0
Oceania 0.7 2.8
Total 9.5 17.7 84.2
2030, Scenarios 2 and 3
Africa 4.2 1.2 1.6
Asia 5.4 13.6 27.6
NCE Europe 31.3
S Europe
NC America 25.0
South America 0.2 5.7 6.5
Oceania 0.8 2.9
Total 9.9 21.4 94.9
Region Other Other Total
softwood hardwood
2005
Africa 0.5 1.4 9.4
Asia 15.3 79.2 124.8
NCE Europe 36.0 12.1 74.5
S Europe 4.6 4.7 9.3
NC America 7.2 1.7 27.8
South America 0.3 0.9 10.9
Oceania 0.2 0.2 3.6
Total 64.0 100.3 260.5
2030, Scenario 1
Africa 0.5 1.6 9.4
Asia 16.9 92.8 148.3
NCE Europe 38.3 12.5 79.6
S Europe 7.5 7.6 15.0
NC America 9.8 2.0 33.7
South America 0.3 1.0 12.7
Oceania 0.2 0.3 3.9
Total 73.5 117.8 302.7
2030, Scenarios 2 and 3
Africa 0.5 1.8 9.4
Asia 18.5 106.4 171.7
NCE Europe 40.6 13.0 84.9
S Europe 10.3 10.4 20.8
NC America 12.5 2.4 39.8
South America 0.4 1.1 13.9
Oceania 0.2 0.3 4.2
Total 83.0 135.5 344.6
Table 8.--Wood volume produced in planted forests by region and use at
2005 and 2030 for the three scenarios (million [m.SUP.3] [yr.sup.-1]).
Fuel/ Pulp/ Wood
Bioenergy Fiber products
2005
Africa 11 9 55
Asia 79 141 264
NCE Europe 17 123 166
Southern Europe 3 26 26
NC America 7 98 24
South America 19 133 91
Oceania 1 11 31
Total 136 540 659
2030
Africa 10 14 57
Asia 83 132 311
NCE Europe 18 129 185
Southern Europe 5 44 45
NC America 7 106 29
South America 21 157 106
Oceania 1 12 35
Scenario 1, Total 146 593 767
Africa 10 15 56
Asia 88 146 321
NCE Europe 18 129 185
Southern Europe 6 55 56
NC America 8 117 31
South America 23 173 115
Oceania 1 13 36
Scenario 2, Total 155 647 800
Africa 10 22 63
Asia 107 204 417
NCE Europe 20 137 200
Southern Europe 8 67 69
NC America 10 149 38
South America 34 268 156
Oceania 2 19 55
Scenario 3, Total 191 866 998
Harvest
Unspecified losses Total
2005
Africa 6 1 82
Asia 6 5 495
NCE Europe 8 15 529
Southern Europe 0 3 58
NC America 0 7 135
South America 0 10 253
Oceania 0 4 47
Total 21 44 1400
2030
Africa 6 2 89
Asia 18 6 550
NCE Europe 4 17 353
Southern Europe 0 5 98
NC America 0 149
South America 0 12 295
Oceania 0 4 53
Scenario 1, Total 29 53 1589
Africa 6 2 89
Asia 20 7 582
NCE Europe 4 17 353
Southern Europe 0 6 123
NC America 0 8 164
South America 0 13 323
Oceania 0 4 55
Scenario 2, Total 30 57 1689
Africa 6 2 103
Asia 22 7 756
NCE Europe 4 17 378
Southern Europe 0 6 150
NC America 0 8 206
South America 0 13 171
Oceania 4 81
Scenario 3, Total 33 57 2145
Figure 1.--Scope and concept of planted forests.
Continuum of Forest Characteristics
Semi-natural
Assisted
Modified natural
Primary natural regeneration
Forest of Forest
native species, naturally Silvicultural
where there are regenerated practices for
no clearly native species intensive
visible where there are management
indications clearly visible (weeding,
of human indications of fertilizing,
activities and human thinning,
the ecological activities selective
processes are logging)
not
significantly
disturbed
Semi-natural Plantation
Planted Forests
Primary Planted Productive
Forest of
Forest of introduced
native species, Forest of species and in
where there are native some cases
no clearly species, native species,
visible established established
indications through through
of human planting, planting
activities and seeding or or seeding
the ecological coppice of mainly for
processes are planted trees production of
not wood or non-
significantly wood goods
disturbed
Plantation
Planted Forests
Trees outside
Primary Protective forest
Stands smaller
Forest of Forest of than 0.5 ha;
native species, native or trees in
where there are introduced agricultural
no clearly species, land
visible established (agroforestry
indications through systems,
of human planting or home gardens,
activities and seeding orchards);
the ecological mainly for trees in urban
processes are provision of environments;
not services and scattered
significantly along roads and
disturbed in landscapes
